Capricorn Ingress 21 December 2016

Set for Westminster, UK, the Capricorn ingress Sun appears in the 11th house of groups. The waning square of the Moon in Libra (8th house) indicates that the people are in touch with this sentiment and look for fairness and equity within the coming year. The people are looking for peace and an upholding of their common rights.

However, Pluto in a T square with a Jupiter Uranus opposition set up a cardinal influence. Gobal themes initiate with a grounding in protectionist and patriotic Cancer. How the world restructures will decide if it becomes a world predisposed to war or peace. Very large and powerful forces compete to dominate as much of our world as possible. The Sun and Moon are in a waning square. The people don’t want any of the above but are involved in it no matter what. The people want peace and equity but will have to fight the system to get it; and the system is in the process of change.

The Sun trines the North Node in Virgo (7th House), which is a great pointer to where the concern about peace and equity originates. The devil is in the detail, it is said and the NN in Virgo describes this problem nicely.

Currently in the UK, 6 months after the Brexit referendum, not only is there no definitive date to trigger articel 50 to signal the two year extraction from the European Union (even though Prime Minister, Theresa May, insists that it will be triggered at the end of March). The Supreme Court decided in November that Parliament must vote on an Act to be able to trigger article 50 and Scotland disputes the result to the point that triggering article 50 could lead to a renewed referendum on Scottish Independence. Add to this that many other European countries are also questioning their continued participation in the European project. If more countries exit the EU, it would be uncertain if the project itself could survive and one has to wonder if there will be an EU to exit from in the two years it would take to leave. Yet if there is an EU to exit from, no one has the faintest idea how one extracts one’s country from the spaghetti of the EU law it is entangled in. Will it take an Alexander the Great to cut through the impossible knot?

You either control life or it controls you. Knowledge is the key.

Elsewhere in the world, the global financial reset still rolls on and the world still faces insurmountable debt. The threat of a global depression gets ever closer, with many people now saying that 2017 is when the world economy collapses (as it has been destined to since 2008).

Venus is in the first house and conjunct the Ascendant. Both are aspected by trine to Jupiter and by Semi square to the Sun. One must get ready for an escalation in both financial and military activity. It is entirely possible that there will be a blame game with both sides expecting each other to make concessions. War and money are so interwoven that it feels impossible to separate the cause and effect of one on the other. The people though are heartily sick of it and I anticipate that people pressure will build to demand that governments stop bickering and just sort out the problems. Brexit (and the result of the US Presidential election) are by products of people all over the world fed up with the establishment and how globalisation has widened the gap between the richest 1% and the poorest in society. The establishment wants globalisation and the people do not. After globalisation is halted you can expect a period of protectionism as Uranus ingresses into Taurus (2018).

All planets above the horizon end, by disposit, in Venus on the Ascendant Only Neptune is in its own sign with Mars and Uranus dependent on it. Both Venus and Neptune are first house tenants. Money, fraud, corruption, famine and war are the undercurrents with peace (Jupiter), stability (Saturn) and certainty (Moon) the sought after goals.

Aquarius Ascendant speaks of team structure and the Sagittarius Midheaven of global involvement to attain. Pluto is now half way around Capricorn (here in the 12th house) demanding that the old administration must go. Pluto squares the Jupiter (8th) Uranus (2nd) opposition, challenging the way reform has to expand beyond the tinkering exercised so far; One has to push the boundaries to keep up with the change.

Neptune (1st) in its own sign of Pisces only aspected in midpoint with Mars in opposition to North Node (7th); the focus to actively dissolve / confuse? Mars sextiles the Sun which trines the NN. The effect of this confusion is set to last for the year. Plans are afoot to sow the seed to obfuscate and misdirect. North Node semi squares Jupiter, suggesting every effort is being made not to allow expansion to get out of control but this may be a bit like trying to stop an avalanche (Jupiter waning sextile to Saturn).

Uranus in Aries opposes Jupiter in Libra; initiating the ‘breaking down of’ but not too much at once. Uranus also trines Saturn in Sagittarius implying a structured approach to making changes. Conversely, Pluto demands and so there has to be a balance between structured change and the rate of it to avoid total chaos.

Jupiter (Libra) and Saturn (Sagittarius) are in mutual reception by sign and also in sextile; Saturn is exalted in Libra and Jupiter rules Sagittarius. Both are aspected to Uranus. Saturn also squares Chiron. The current societal structure, dragged along pitilessly by a debt ridden economy, is bleeding to death and it can only get worse as the situation escalates. But certain changes are inevitable, meaning that austerity was merely a sticking plaster to what has to come next. Society will have to look seriously at it’s personal financial situation and many will have to make some pretty serious adjustments. Saturn rules the Ascendant, so this will be the leadership (and by leadership I do mean the establishment and not just governments) reshaping the structure of the next Saturn Pluto cycle that begins in 2020.

The Mars Pluto semi square is the closest aspect, being within 2 minutes of arc, implying that this may be a violent year with ruthless decisions and power struggles. Mars is also in sextile to the ingressed Sun. The pressure for reform is forcing countries to action but there is no cohesive effort. This is a fragmented and divided competition to see who comes out on top. Rules made on the hoof by individual bodies, conflicting goals and with Mercury conjunct Pluto (Mercury ruling Virgo where the NN is) negotiation is very much focused on how the new structure is going to look going forward.

UK 1801 chart.

Transiting (T) Venus is conjunct Natal (N) Venus, while T Mars is conjunct N Pluto. Mars and Pluto have the potential towards violence, assertiveness and ruthlessness. Meanwhile the T Moon conjuncts N Uranus; people in chaos, division, every man for himself. T Saturn trines N Saturn, so general day to day activity appears stable, suggesting that chaos is localised to individual crisis rather than group insurrection. Contrarily, T Mars also aspects N Uranus by inconjunct, so the line between challenge and destruction could be tentative. Likewise T Saturn inconjuncts N Moon, so if the prevailing structure becomes too punative or ideologically capricious then control of the people would be lost.

US Sibley Chart

The closest aspect in the US chart is T Uranus conjunct N Chiron in the 4th house, sitting at the individuality aspect of the T square that channels its energy into patriotic Cancer. It may well indicate a country at war with its own identity, appalled by some at it’s recent decisions and calling into question the direction the country is heading. The election of Donald Trump surprised many people but Trump represented an anti establishment mood that was readily taken up by the majority despite some extreme views and, to put it politely, politically incorrect rhetoric. Perhaps if one were to look at this in a different perspective, the people voted by majority (arguable by dint of electoral college v popular vote) to reject the establishment. Some people have reconciled the result by saying that Trump did not win the election but Clinton lost it. I prefer to think that the establishment lost the election because it is the establishment that has caused the pain and hurt for so many Americans. Consequently things have to change and maybe Trump is the right vehicle to voice them on behalf of the people.

T Mars (3rd) trines N Venus (8th). This is perhaps part of the ‘Make America Great Again’ sentiment as the 3rd and 8th house involvement refers to every day activity and other people’s money; ergo business at local level. T Uranus is in the 4th, so emphasis on creating new business at home tops the agenda. How this might come about is another matter, as the T Uranus conjunct N Chiron implies that one has to break down (Uranus) that which cannot be healed (Chiron). The implicit synergy between the two leads to a conclusion that the only solution may be to tear down the whole structure and start again. This bring us back to the who global financial reset that continues to progress in the background.

It is important to stress that Donald Trump has nothing to do with whatever global recession transpires this year. The global recession had been inevitable since 2008 but has been delayed by the failed quantitative easing programme and central bank’s willingness to prop up failing economies and insititutions. I introduce this comment just in case anyone is prepared to believe the establishment when it tries to blame it on the candidate they did not want to win.

US 5:02pm LMT

Changes to house placements put T Uranus N Chiron on 7th house with Jupiter loose conjunct the Ascendant and Pluto very conjunct the IC. In global terms this chart emphasises more closely with the global reforms of the Uranus Pluto square. T Mars (5th)and N Venus (9th) alludes more to foreign affairs and how interactions on the world stage make America Great Again in the eyes of the world. This is particularly important for inward investment and trade; T Mercury sits in the 3rd house next to the IC, separating local trade from international trade.

There is quite a delicate balance that Trump has to make between the aspirations of an inward looking nation (Make America Great Again) to an outward looking superpower. The success of the American economy currently lies with the disentanglement of the US dollar as the reserve currency because it is too strong and hampers trade. The aim is to make the dollar weaker, more competitive with the other major currencies, which will undoubtedly make imports more expensive.

Question for astrologers, does this make one chart better for national and the other for international interpretations?

Italy Republic Jun 10 1946 4:00pm GMT

The astrocartography of the Capricorn ingress shows Saturn and Neptune intersecting over Italy, implying the possibility of structural erosion. T Neptune (4th) inconjuncts N Pluto (9th) suggesting that home affairs are in conflict with the international status quo. Italy is supposedly the next in line to express a desire to exit from the EU (dubbed Italeave). T Mars (4th) is firmly conjunct the IC opposing its natal Mars (9th) on the MC. Italy also appears to have just past its Jupiter return and T Saturn is about to trine its natal self, both signs of internal stock taking.

A more emotive aspect it T Moon conjunct N Neptune in the 11th. There has long been issues with corruption within the Italian establishment (along with a thriving black market on the ground) that a root and branch reform would appear a necessity. The poor performance in the European Union made Italy one of what was described as the ‘PIIGS’ countries (The rest being Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). Economically the EU has not been a success for Italy but would the economic situation become infinitely worse if they chose to leave?

Greece July 24 1974 12:00pm EET

Very similar to the US Libra rising chart, the Jupiter Uranus Pluto T square is on the angles with Jupiter on the Ascendant. While the government want to remain active within the European Union, the people are losing faith, noted by T Chiron (5th) conjunct N Jupiter. Also T Moon (12th) conjuncts N Pluto reflecting the fearful mood of the people on the status quo. Trade and stability continues to evaporate (T Neptune (5th) trine N Saturn Mercury conjunction (9th). Where tourism is a large part of the economy, economic downturns may be a significant detriment.

The Capricorn ingress signifies the seeds that are sown for the coming year. None of the above is particularly unknown and in some ways the mood of the people have gone past the pessimism one might associate with bad times. The mood is perhaps more stoical than resigned; to keep up with the changes and the confusion but determined to be involved rather than excluded as irrelevant. Yes, there are going to be storms but we can weather them.

There will be casualties and probably some fundamental shifts as the global financial reset must transition from what we have now to what it will become. The majority of people have no part to play in all of this but will none the less be affected by it (how much depends upon how prepared you are). So for December 21st to March 20th there is work to be done before the chaos begins. The Pluto Uranus Jupiter T square channels into Cancer, suggesting the people have an opportunity to focus on home and prepare as best they can for the coming storm.

How Are You Today?

Maybe my wife knows me too well, or maybe she misreads my actions. I am accused frequently of being unsociable but I prefer to consider myself intolerant to small talk and incongruity. Yes, I do feel awkward when nothing worth saying comes to mind. How I envy my son who as a child goes up to another child and says ‘I’m Tim, who are you? What shall we do now?’; so uninhibited but a genuine willingness on both parties to share some time together.

I am an introvert by nature but always happy to chat with another person if the subject matter is interesting and worthy of debate. Put me with people who have something interesting to say and I’ll join in with enthusiasm.

However, there is a big difference between a person with something interesting to say and a person who thinks you should be interested in what they have to say. And in the hierarchy of interesting topics, I would rather debate the corruption of bible translations with Jehovah’s Witnesses than be bothered at all by the parasitical thief of time known as telephone sales.

I know what you’re going to say, these guys are just doing a job and it is nothing personal. That may be true but what they say is also scripted, mind numbingly soul destroying and could only possibly be accomplished happily by the very people I would never strike up a decent conversation with: no small talk, no gossip, no soap operas, no scripted reality TV, no reality TV, no magazines, no supercilious drivel. I have no idea what they are selling and I don't want to know; I do not want to buy it. If I needed it I would buy it. If I don’t need it, there will be a sales person trying to convince me that I do.

The demarcation line is easy to see; if they have to sell it to you then you don’t need it. Not only that but if you do buy that insurance against being sold dodgy insurance, that will never pay out because you would have to pay in for 30 years before the insurance becomes valid (but you do get a really nice cheap pen that you pay for out of your first month’s premium), it will be you that pays commission to the person who phoned you up in the middle of dinner when it was most inconvenient. In short, they want you to pay them money for phoning you up and selling you an expensive white elephant.

At a time when the world is in debt and people with maxed out credit cards are trying to cut out the expenses in their life, you get more and more nuisance phone calls where reluctant employees are trying to sell you nothing for as big a profit as possible.

And it all starts when you pick up the phone and that voice says, “Hello Mr Ward. My name is Bob. How are you today?”

Of course I don’t mean to be rude but it is at that point that I hang up. Bob has already committed a cardinal sin. He does not know me and the probability is that he has absolutely no concern for my health and well being. He does not want to know how I am; he wants to draw up a verbal contract that means I want to do business with him. I don’t. How can anyone conduct business with a modicum of faith if the person begins the contract with such a disingenuous question? It is scripted of course by those who spend their business life making money out of the gullible and those not accustomed to critical thinking. Don't get me wrong; we've all been there at some time in our lives, sucked into the moment and then wishing afterwards that we had never even answered the phone.

I could reply, “I was doing really great until you phoned up” but that is still dialogue and encourages rapport. I rather like John Locke’s idea (8 Out of Ten Cats Does Countdown) of asking the guy to hang on while he gets some documentation and just leaves the phone off the hook while he goes and finishes dinner.

If I were given the choice between having to bat away telesales calls three times a week or swapping my shower scrunchy for a tic-infested hedgehog with flatulent tendencies, I reckon the hedgehog might just edge it if it were not for the case that no matter how many preference call systems you sign up to there are just as many sales companies that do not subscribe to it.

The wider connotations of telesales is always going to be tied to predatory practices to sell successfully things that people would seldom buy, mostly because the cost is beyond their ability to pay for it. Marketing would argue that if they did not call then you might miss out on an opportunity. But what we don’t know about we don’t miss right? I really don’t need hundreds of desk chained, commission based, poor students telling me what I might miss or rent desperate, soul defeated automatons who hate their job, alerting me to buy something that in another fantasy world I might actually entertain purchasing the equivalent of an arctic-safe ice machine that runs on polar bear droppings.

A solution comes to mind that I might even try one day. Perhaps I should declare from the beginning of the conversation that I charge £1000 an hour for my time and an initial call charge is £100 (payable in advance), so if the caller would like to pay it and give me company details and a billing address for the remaining time, they can talk to me about anything they want. Then when they ask ‘How are you today?’ my response will be at their expense and not mine.

Brexit: The Right Time To Trigger Article 50

The Saturn Neptune square, for me is manifested in the way that my garden has gotten away from me, borders blurred by long grass and me having little or no time to maintain it. Saturn denotes borders, order and land. Neptune denotes creativity, confusion and erosion. My flowerbeds need to be redefined and all the stuff that does not belong pulled out. Oh, and to cap it all, my sceptic tank soak-away pump died.

It cost me money to get more tools for my garden and it cost me money for a new pump. To get my garden back to some sort of order will take weeks - probably the length of the Saturn Neptune square.

The first Saturn Neptune square was 26 November 2015. I had gout and was hardly able to walk. This was the start of my problem. My greenhouse remained unfinished, so I could not plan my fruit and vegetables properly for the following spring. Transiting Pluto sat stubbornly on my natal Saturn, causing as much trouble as possible. Neptune was actively conjunct my IC at the time I moved house after 26 years in one place. The move had taken a while and we even pulled out of the first purchase because the vendors were dithering and confused about their move. Transiting Uranus was inconjunct to my natal Ascendant, creating chaos to how I presented myself to the world; like the day I had to go to a meeting in carpet slippers because the gout prevented me from wearing shoes. The big outer 4 did not sit nicely for me.

But all was not doom and gloom. Mercury conjunct Saturn on the day of the square, gave me the opportunity to communicate to others how confusing certain procedures are to individuals who were least able to understand it. This was my newly acquired job and I was learning how to support a confused person and help to bring the sudden chaos of their lives back to some form of order and control. So the Saturn Neptune square gave me employment by using the two energies in a positive sense. Where Neptune dissolved the structure of people’s lives, it was my job to support them while they battled to change their minds from illusion back to reality.

Even Jeremy Corbyn (Leader of the Labour party in the UK) at this time was making a big play on the inadequate investment given to mental health. Usually the first casualty in any cost cutting exercise, mental health became under invested and too many people are living in the community without help or support until there is a crisis.

The second Saturn Neptune square is on 18 June 2016, just at the time Jupiter applies by closing trine to Pluto. So just before the second square is exact, Jupiter and Neptune oppose while squaring Saturn, the most remarkable mundane event at the time being the campaign for Great Britain referendum to remain or leave the European Union. We know now, of course, that the UK chose to leave but everyone agreed that the arguments both for and against were confusing and often full of misleading claims.

The final pass of the closing Saturn Neptune square will be 10 September 2016. The North Node will be within tolerance of an opposition to Neptune and square Saturn; yet another T-square. Jupiter will have just ingressed into Libra while Mercury inconjuncts Uranus. This  last aspect does not bode well for trade and to be applying at the time of the last Saturn Neptune square implies much confusion.

The UK will be trying to unscramble the egg that binds it to EU laws, which will obviously include trade. Europe has declared that the UK can have free trade if it continues to allow free movement of people. One of the main reasons for Brexit, however, is that the UK wants control back of it’s borders. This in the first instance creates a problem for those who have both come to the UK and left the UK to work. The present stance is that the UK will allow people from the EU already here and working to stay if the EU will grant a reciprocal arrangement for the UK citizens in the EU. In terms of trade, however, the UK wants free trade but control back of it’s borders. With the North Node in Virgo, the devil will undoubtedly be in the detail.

While the Saturn Neptune square releases from around 22 September 2016, the Neptune opposition to the North Node continues to apply, becoming exact round 17 November 2016. It is a curious aspect with Neptune conjunct the South Node, that confusion dominates what people have done in the past. Brexit means that one cannot go back to what was done before but to some people there is also the unwillingness to change it. This will no doubt muddy negotiations (that the EU say cannot begin until the UK declares article 50).

Then Jupiter’s closing square to Pluto (loosely applying but opposition to Uranus) hits on 24 November 2016 while the Neptune opposing North Node is still within a degree of exact. Saturn is also in aspect: sextile to Jupiter, Semi-sextile to Pluto and trine to Uranus. Saturn is conjunct Mercury indicating trade restriction possibilities. Pluto is conjunct Venus, implying financial revelations. All these aspects coming together one after the other indicates some major financial shocks that reverberate around the world. No doubt if Donald Trump becomes President of the United States, the establishment will be quickly revising the plans it made when assuming it had successfully engineered its preferred candidate, Hillary Clinton, as a bought and paid for puppet into the White House.

I have stated for many years that I expect to see a global depression. In so far as I saw it happening in 2015 (see the Barbault cyclic index), there has been some artificial stimulus holding back what must inevitably happen. Perhaps the Saturn Neptune square may finally unravel this artificial financial buoyancy and allow the unravelling to commence in November 2016.

The consequences for Brexit should not go unnoticed. The EU has demanded that if the UK wants to leave then it should get on with it. But everything astrological suggests that the right moment to sign article 50 will be on 1 January 2017. Certainly the way the aspects are lining up to take down the global economy, any notion of trying to negotiate leaving the EU in the middle of financial turmoil would be impossible.

After the Jupiter Pluto square comes Saturn Uranus closing trine late 24 December 2016 within 13 minutes of arc before Jupiter becomes exact by opposition to Uranus and is exact by sextile to Saturn. The North Node, implicit in its previous tie up with Neptune is now semi square Jupiter and sesquiquadrate Uranus. The sudden breaking (Uranus) of boundaries (Saturn) by too much (Jupiter). Jupiter also applies by inconjunct to Chiron. Venus also applies to Jupiter and Uranus. This particular aspect is going to be a big deal and another reason not to sign article 50 just yet, as there are still global events to play out before the stage can be seen clearly enough to make rational plans.

Is it therefore possible that other EU countries may decide that the last straw is placed on the creaking economies of Italy, France, Portugal etc. Will others now call for referendums and place the final nail in the coffin of the EU project? This is the kind of event that would change the perspective of Brexit and what might be left to negotiate with.

Jupiter opposes Uranus exactly on 26 December and then refrains from aspect to sextile Saturn with Jupiter turning stationary retrograde on 6 February 2017 and not making that exact sextile until 27 August 2017.

So there will be a societal issue of global importance that will take over 8 months to unfold within the public eye. The UK cannot possibly eke out signing article 50 for that long.

So my prediction is that the UK will choose to sign article 50 on 1 January 2017 with a view to being officially separate from the EU by midnight 1 January 2019, which will effectively trigger a new UK chart.

But first let’s look at the New Year chart for 2017 and the challenges that will present. Sun and Pluto are within 6 degrees of conjunction, meaning the UK still holds a place close to the world stage. Mars and Neptune conjunct at 9º Pisces and trine the MC indicates the potential for the UK to become a tax haven and the conduit for all manner of fraudulent activity. Venus in Aquarius in the UKs 5th house further enhances how unusually attractive the UK might become to outside investors (but I wonder if this will be for all the wrong reasons).

It also suggests that the decision to renew Trident submarines will go ahead despite the controversy and the enormous cost; politically the UK government still want to use nuclear capability to hold power on the world stage.

Jupiter and Uranus are in opposition through the 1801 1st and 7th houses. I have expected for some time that the UK will forge stronger links with China. This being the case, the deal for a new nuclear power plant at Hinkley point may also get the go ahead. This means that energy for the British public may be set to double by the time it is completed and will therefore be subject to mass protest.

Transiting Saturn in the UKs 3rd house will be good for trade at home. The implication of a weaker pound will help exports and Mercury also in the 3rd suggests talks around trade deals being set up.

Most of the planets sit at the bottom of the chart except Uranus. So the world will see the UK reform but there is a huge amount of work going on, Transiting Jupiter in the 1st house alone depicting the huge task to reinvent the UK as a single entity.

So if my prediction is correct then the next official working chart for the UK will be 1st January 2019.

Transiting Sun and Saturn are conjunct , with Pluto just ahead of Saturn by 9º in Capricorn. In many ways the necessity to reform might place the UK ahead of the rest of the world in the changes that must take place. In this sense it demonstrates that the UK leaving the EU before it collapses anyway could turn out to be an extremely good move.

Transiting Mars at the anaretic degree of 29 Pisces places the UK ready and waiting for the new world order to emerge. Indeed the work already done might place the UK at the vanguard of change, particularly within the financial sector. Paradoxically, however, Mars is conjunct Chiron, which also indicates that the UK financial sector, being in part to blame for all that is wrong with economic markets, will still try to protect itself from necessary change. This means that there will be intentional delays and much dragging of feet, while those of wealth and high asset manage to protect their interests; Uranus in the UK chart is retrograde at 28 of Aries but it has already ingressed into Taurus (see article). Transiting Neptune is also in the 6th house which further reinforces the notion of fraud and dishonesty. I expect that there may be quite a lot of confusion around tax and who is entitled to pay what.

Transiting Jupiter is strong in Sagittarius and in the 3rd house of the UK 1801 chart. I am inclined to lean towards the notion that the UK, for expediency if nothing else, will adopt much of the EU law as UK law in order to firstly harmonise issues around trade, security and international cooperation and secondly to save the idiocy of trying to nit pick through huge swathes of law changes. One hopes that common sense will largely prevail and might also provide a template for other countries leaving the EU to likewise adopt similar harmonisations. Mercury in the 3rd also indicates strong trade both at home and abroad.

Transiting Venus and Moon are in Scorpio in the 2nd house of personal values. Crucially they place the UK 1801 Neptune at midpoint between them. This ‘transformation’ of personal values, particularly with the North Node in the patriotic sign of Cancer, could rejuvenate a greater sense of patriotism and encourage the citizens of the UK to define their ‘Britishness’. There is, of course, an inherent danger that could not only foster bigotry and prejudice but also strain the relations with the UK between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The semi sextile between transiting Moon and Jupiter may just keep the countries from flying apart, however, transiting Uranus in the 7th, the breaking away from open enemies (in this case Westminster) could indicate still further devolution.

I’m sure that much more could be extracted from the January 2019 chart but until article 50 is triggered, the chart remains speculative.

The world, even in 2019, appears to remain in a state of transformation and reform, which means that the Uranus Pluto square continues to dominate everything until the big conjunctions of 2020 with Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto all starting new cycles. The collapse of the EU could mean new charts for many European countries, while the US looks forward to its Pluto return in 2022.

So you can guarantee that everything must change. If I were looking at when to trigger article 50, I too would suggest 1st January 2017. As it is August 2016 at the time of writing this article, I dare say we will not have too long to wait to find out.

EU referendum in or out?

I am sitting here on 22 June 2016 in the United Kingdom, the day before the EU referendum. By the end of tomorrow we should know if we remain in Europe or leave.

I have listened to all the campaigns and the arguments made by both in and out. My conclusion is that the information offered on both sides is woefully lacking in fact and reasoning. So I do believe that many people will vote in if they have listened to the fear of what might happen if we left, or will vote out if they fear we will be invaded by hoards of immigrants.

The fact is that nobody knows what would happen in the future if we stayed or left. We have no idea what the consequences of choosing either path would be. So there is no point in voting on the basis of what either side say might happen.

Many people have claimed that the economy would suffer if we left the EU. I would say this is a bit rich coming from some people in the government who have made the UK go through years of austerity. The middle classes downward have already experienced an economic suffering. The remain crowd argue that all the suffering would go to waste if we left. and yet the global economy is poised on the biggest downturn in history, so there is not the slightest guarantee that remaining in the EU will make our economic fortunes any rosier.

Immigration is another issue that causes consternation. The remain crowd express how the country has benefited from the diversity of immigrants and that those who come into this country put in more than they take out. This may well be true in terms of tax revenue and in the cases of people filling much needed job placements. But the stress of too many people and not enough infrastructure to accommodate them causes its own problems. Two examples are easy to demonstrate this: housing and wages.

The market principle of supply and demand has meant that too many people and not enough houses have pushed up the cost of buying or renting a house to ridiculous levels. First time buyers of reasonable means cannot afford to save for the deposit to buy a place and with rents taking and average of 42 hours work on the minimum wage it is virtually impossible to make ends meet and save anything near the kind of money to put together a £20,000 deposit plus fees this side of the age of 40. (renting a 2 bedroom house in London is £1200 a month and 42 hours on minimum wage, without tax, is close to £300 a week.)

Too many people in this country created a housing crisis. Politicians will argue that Labour / Conservatives did not build enough houses and that this is the problem. But if builders cannot build and make a profit they will not build and if employees cannot save to buy a property they will not buy. Wages simply no longer meet the level at which buying a house is feasible.

And speaking of wages, particularly the minimum wage - what the Conservatives laughingly call the living wage - the fact is it is not high enough to be a living wage. And with more and more unskilled labour coming into the workforce, the employers are in a race to the bottom in terms of the hourly rate they can get away with. This is the kind of employers market where zero hours contracts become the norm, which in turn makes getting a mortgage for a house impossible.

Trade is another argument used by both sides to no good effect. David Cameron announced that a trade deal with Canada was the best trade deal that the EU had worked on and that it had taken 7 years already. Using this as a guide he then goes on to say that if we left it could take another 7 years.

This is, of course, nonsense. To begin with there is only one country to make a decision if we were trading on our own. We would not have to ask 27 countries to all agree on every paragraph. Arguable you could divide that 7 years by 27 and do a trade deal in a few months. BUT CETA is a disastrous trade deal that, like TTIP (which Obama warned us we might be at the back of the queue for) is written by corporations for corporations. There are clauses like the ability of a corporation to sue a sovereign nation for loss of future profit, therefore there is a way of getting all the fracking, GMO frankenstein foods, glyphosate and every other undesirable product to our shores. I for one would be happy to be at the back of a very long queue for this kind of trade deal and would welcome leaving on this basis alone.

Finally there is the argument of democracy. The remain team argue that we have to be within the EU in order to change it. However, given the derisory concessions that David Cameron brought back in order to have a referendum at all, it is incredibly unlikely that this, or any sovereign nation will get close to ousting the unelected, and therefore unaccountable, decision makers at the EU centre. So if we can’t elect them out, we are no longer living in a democracy. The EU will decide what direction we, as a block of countries, will head towards. The corporations and the central banks will lead the way.

So what do you vote for? This is indeed a landmark decision. In my humble opinion, if we vote to remain, we do everything that the banks and big business want us to do. George Soros warned that the pound could plunge if we voted out. Now this is important to consider. Think of what happened to your money the last time the pound plunged. Not much eh? In fact people in middle class and below who struggle to make ends meet will probably notice it as much as the £3.00 or so difference a week the annual budget offers. The chancellor talks millions of pounds but we are affected in terms of a few quid. If the stock market lost a billion pounds tomorrow, you and I would see as much of it as we see now… nothing.

If you want a reason to vote to remain, make it that you want to see a United States of Europe and to have Brussels control your tax and give up the NHS to private enterprise (TTIP will do this and it is not scaremongering). No matter how much you argue otherwise, that is the inevitable conclusion.

If you want to vote to leave, make it that you want to stay as an independent country and make your own deals with the world. You will still have to deal with the biggest corporate pirate in the world, the corporation of London, but you might at least get the last say what you will or will not accept into our country.

The World does not Owe You a Living

The political divide in the midst of 2016 has never been so visibly pronounced for some time. In the US the Presidential race is dominated by extreme right wing candidates (both establishment and maverick) and not so right wing establishment vs what the Americans see as the extremes of centre left. In the UK there is a pending referendum on whether to remain or leave the European Union. The Conservative government has placed punitive measures in public spending that has resulted in severe cuts to services and the pockets of ordinary people. Zero hours contracts become more common adding further insecurity to the ability to make ends meet. As a direct consequence the Labour party found themselves with a new leader whose ideology is more left wing than most since the 1970s.

Austerity measures further increase the discontent of those who cannot afford to make ends meet while stock market figures soar to new heights. The essential assets of countries, like gas, electricity and water are sold to pay off debts created by policies of central banks (This is an entirely different story) leaving them not only without the means to create profit from their consumers but doomed to a perpetual cycle that can never return to self sufficiency. House prices have risen so high that hopes of owning one are far less than ever before. For many in the Millennial generation, it feels like the goal posts have been moved so much that any dreams of being able to afford anything beyond just keeping a rented roof over their head is now an unrealistic pursuit.

Before I continue, I hold my hands up and declare that my political leanings are of the centre left but not of the bought and paid for established political party cronies to corporate business. I have worked all my life (how hard is a matter of perspective) barring a couple of times where I was grateful that the UK government had a welfare system that enabled me to concentrate on looking for work instead of struggling to keep a roof over my head.

I have not once sat back in the belief that the world owes me a living. In fact I have never met a person who does think that way. It is a phrase that has been around for at least 100 years. Mark Twain is reported to have said, “Don’t go around saying the world owes you a living; the world owes you nothing; it was here first.”

Conversely, the UK welfare system is replete with words like ‘benefit’ and ‘entitlement’. The whole welfare system has shuddered at the notion of millions of people who have not paid into the UK tax system suddenly becoming entitled to take money out of it, courtesy of the European Union, to the degree that hasty legislation prevents people from taking money out of the system until they have paid taxes into it - in short, to get a job. After all, the work does not owe them a living.

But it is not the world in this instance; it is the UK that does not owe people who do not live in the UK a living. And in many ways it is not even the UK. It is the system set up by successive governments that does not owe people outside of the UK a living. So what of the people inside the UK? Does the system owe them a living?

Part of my life was spent working in the benefit system. So I think I have both the qualification and the expertise to speak about them. Every form of welfare benefit has certain conditions of ‘entitlement’. If you satisfy the conditions then you can claim a certain amount of money. The whole idea about claiming money when not working originated in 1911 by a group of professional people who decided to make weekly contributions to a pot in order to insure themselves against harder times. Later on, when the idea caught on, the UK government developed a much wider insurance system that included everyone; they called it the National Insurance payment. Everyone paid into it from their wages while they worked, never knowing if one day they might need support. After all, the world did not owe them a living - at least the UK government did not.

So the phrase using the words ‘The World’ is a catch all phrase and highly inaccurate. The world was around long before the system that used money, long before the system that encouraged the illusion of ownership and long before those who imposed these systems all but killed off those who had no need of either money or ownership.

To ‘owe’ implies that first a contribution has to be made. You can only possibly get out of life equal to the effort you put into it. This statement is untrue of course.

‘Life is not fair’ is certainly true. The amount of effort has to be weighed up according to the amount of ability. Some people struggle to grasp budgeting for their weekly needs while others with the same amount of money and circumstances hardly have to think about it. ‘Living’, if one were to assign the word as meaning the financial requirements to live is incredibly unequal.

I don’t propose to labour on the obvious differences between skilled and unskilled work and the incredible variance of remuneration. Suffice it to say that ‘a living’ depends on a person’s skills and abilities. But there are some people for whom work is not an option and it is often a measure of a society how those who can work are prepared to look after those who cannot.

But the term ‘The world does not owe you a living’ does not apply to the infirm, the incapable or the sick. It really only applies to those who can work but either choose not to but still want to receive some form of welfare. But how much of this belief is true and how much is just a contrived perspective?

Imagine a ten thousand piece jig-saw puzzle made of cardboard. You empty the box on the table and proceed to put the puzzle together. When it is completed you discover there are tiny pieces of dust that the puzzle did not need. What do you do with them? You wipe them away to reveal the perfect puzzle all by itself.

Some people who do not fit into the system are those specs of cardboard. Does the world owe them a living, or does the system need to include them in some way?

In my years of working in a job centre, I noticed how often the job vacancies and the skills of the unemployed person did not match. The employer did not want the office worker to be a chamber maid and the office worker agreed. But there were no office work jobs in the area. There were far too many office workers and not enough chamber maids; a situation that is called a skills mismatch. The office worker could earn twice as much as a chamber maid for the same effort. So if the office worker did not have the skills to be a chambermaid and the employer did not want to train them (and indeed believed them to be overqualified or liable to jump ship as soon as a clerical job arose), is the system entitled to support them or does the world still not owe them a living?

The phrase is catchy but inaccurate. More accurately, when people say ‘the world does not owe you a living’ what they mean is, ‘A system that exists by societal agreement, where everyone is automatically included does not entitle you to benefit from it without having contributed to it or participated in complying with it.’

Mark Twain is right. ’The world’, does not participate in this agreement, whereas ‘owing a living’ is only valid if the person who wants something out of the system for nothing agrees with the system.

So for people who subscribe to the system and participate fully in it, irrespective of their success within that system, the notion of the world not owing you a living is incumbent on their belief that the system in which they participate is the only system; and that it is fair and achievable by everyone.

But life is not fair.

War is one of the fastest ways to create inequality. The innocent flee a war zone and join the millions of other refugees trying to escape a conflict they had nothing to do with. They have nothing but the clothes on their back.

The world does not owe them a living.

The soldiers fighting in those countries who become injured and suffer mental health issue, if they are lucky to survive, history shows they end up on the streets or tucked out of the public eye. Governments spend fortunes on honouring the war dead but not the war living.

The world does not owe them a living.

People oppressed by their governments or neighbouring countries, are forced to live in conditions of penury and abject poverty; the examples of this spread from the nazi holocaust to the Palestinians, Native’s of invaded countries to slavery in all its forms.

The world does not owe them a living.

War is stupid but is invariably created by the very system that just loves people to believe that the world does not owe them a living.

George Carlin was pretty close to the truth of it. The owners of this system don’t want educated people capable of critical thinking. Certainly they don’t want people to question why we live in a system where it is essential to manufacture things that don’t last long, so people have to keep spending money. They don’t want people to question why Corporations attempt to monopolise seed while attempting to kill off nature’s reproduction. They don’t want people to question why corporations attempt to deny water as a right, selling it to us in bottles while other corporations poison the rest with toxic chemicals. In the meantime these same corporations take out more money than they put in and exist only to serve their primary purpose, which is to make a profit. There are no environmental considerations or concerns about what is left behind. They take without giving back.

The world does not owe them a living either, and yet they do more harm than the total sum of people who do not work for whatever reason.

Naturally there are other perspectives to the statement that the world does not owe you a living; an example given here questions the motives of the ‘occupy’ movement

http://spectator.org/36784_world-doesnt-owe-you-living/. Yet I can only think of this kind of perspective as someone who thinks they are in what George Calin describes as the ‘Big Club’, even if it is by acceptance or association.

In fact the only time you hear someone say, the world does not owe you a living, is when they think that they are pulling their weight and contributing to society and someone else is not. They don’t like it when someone does not want to play in the game but in the next breath claim that it is a free country.

So what if a person does not like your system but does not want to take from it? Is that ok? Apparently not. Several people have rejected the capitalist system to the point where they have found a way to live off grid. But instead of being applauded for becoming self sufficient they get arrested.

But let’s stick for the moment to those who do take from the system but could work. It is impossible to make a blanket statement about them because their circumstances are bound to be as different as there are people, which is inconvenient for a system that wants the opposite to be true. This is not new and in the UK I traced the problem back for 500 years (see footnotes). In every time period there was a problem with the poor and those who did not work. In every time period the rich had to pay but the poor were always ill treated, sometimes branded and even hanged; in fact any way the rich people could to brush the jigsaw puzzle dust off their system.

Clearly the problem has not gone away for those who see it as a problem. Yet the history of poverty provides evidence that offering some form of welfare is inevitable. Today we have a pretty good description of what we would regard as basic human rights, which includes food, water, shelter etc. It therefore begs the question as to why people would be penalised for being homeless or self sufficient.

In the end it is not about whether the world owes someone a living; it is about whether individuals are part of the jigsaw or the unwanted dust.

In conclusion, when someone says ‘The world does not owe you a living’, it is a subjective statement. At best it is based on a short sighted ideology designed to deny tax money paid by someone who has paid into the fund (It is their money. ‘I don’t owe anyone a free lunch’), to someone who they see as capable but has not contributed to it. Then they make the mistake of believing that all monies paid in welfare are paid to people who are capable but not contributing to it. 

At worst it is a statement devoid of empathy and in complete denial that in different circumstances, they could find themselves in need of support.

The world does not owe people a living. The system does, if it is to survive as a model that everyone can live within. And like it or not - you have always paid into it one way or another; if not with money then with passively accepting the existence of the homeless, the poor, the disenfranchised and those denied work for a kaleidoscope of reasons.

Footnotes

In the 15th century, poor people were being punished for vagrancy. There was no distinction made between those who looked for work, those who chose not to work, the sick, the disabled or the incapable.

In 1531 Henry VIII introduced a new Vagabonds and Beggars Act that gave licence for those unable to work the right to beg. Those who were able to work were still subject to punishment if they had none.

The Vagrancy Act of 1547 introduced branding for a first offence and lifelong slavery after that. But the population continued to outgrow the work available and so the problem of earning a living got worse.

In 1552 a new Act meant that rich people were asked to donate money. This did not always work. So in 1572 a new Act was introduced that set a ‘tariff’ of donation, which over time became a tax. In return the rich set new punishments including hanging. This did not deter vagrancy in any way.

In 1576, the first attempt of the state to provide a poor person with work, introducing the first ‘House of Correction’. The task of collecting taxes for this work creation was passed over to the church.

By 1590, those who were poor by no fault of their own, the ‘deserving poor’: orphans, physically and mentally sick or disabled, were helped and those who deserved nothing were not. The deserving poor got food and clothing.

The Acts of 1597 and 1601 was the first time that local Parish Councils were charged with providing basic shelter food and clothing to the needy but only for those within their parish. The tax to pay for this was charged to everyone else.

The Act of 1662 divided classifications of the poor thus:

Impotent poor would be cared for in Almshouses or the poorhouse

Able bodied poor would be given work

Idle poor sent to house of correction or prison

Pauper children to become apprentices.

In the 16th and 17th centuries the population outgrew the need for labour. Capitalism in trade began to grow, causing inflation, a drop in wages and an sharp increase in poverty.

The explosion of the industrial revolution introduced more child labour than ever before, often without pay. As time went on employers would rather pay child wages than adults, which meant more adults ended up having to go to a workhouse.

In 1782 the Relief of the Poor Act created poor houses for the sick, elderly and infirm but not the able bodied.

In 1834 the Poor Act was completely overturned in favour of a new system. The Whig (right wing) party at the time sought to address what they saw as abuses in the 1601 system by which relief would only be awarded through workhouses, latching on to the notion that some people might prefer to claim relief rather than work. This Act was not repealed until 1948 with the introduction of the National Assistance Act. This Act worked as a safety net for those people who did not work: the homeless, the disabled and unmarried mothers. It was recognised that the National Insurance Act, while providing a safety net for working people if they became sick, did not provide for those who were unable to contribute. People with mental health illnesses and condition were given protection by local authorities under the new National Health Service, regardless of their ability to pay.

Debtors prison: abolished in the UK in 1869

In 1910 the great unrest of workers in the UK striking appears to have boiled down to the simple equation of increasing prices and stagnant wages, hence standards of living dropping down to poverty levels. Capitalism had seemed to work well for a period and then reached the end of a natural cycle, in which profitable practices and products had to change with the times. This meant trying to extract more productivity for less. Understandably the workforce already experiencing a drop in money (in real terms) were hardly going to accept having to work harder for less and with fewer employees.

Changes to work and new technology continues today to challenge the stability of profitability over employment numbers and retaining healthy consumer activity. And yet it is hard to accept that in an environment of austerity and cuts to wages in real terms that stock market price values push ever higher to unprecedented levels. Just over one hundred years ago, strikers, who could in today’s parlance be described as worker who had become ‘radicalised’ took action against the imposed changes of their employers. Is it any wonder then that the ideological left wing values are once again becoming more popular among the people?

National Insurance Act 1911 (originally Germany had provided NI in 1884). This applied only to wage earners as a protection against loss of earnings. People who did not work were not covered. Applied by Lloyd George (Liberal) opposed by Conservative  AND trade unions.